India Sees Opportunity in Trump’s Global Turbulence. That Could Backfire.

The chaotic first 100 days following Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency have sent shockwaves across both the United States and the global stage. Despite New Delhi’s outward display of optimism, the turbulence has extended to U.S.-India relations as well. For over 25 years, ties between the two countries had steadily strengthened, with successive American administrations—including Trump’s first term—actively courting India amid growing strategic rivalry with China.

Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. partnership with India reached new heights. Washington viewed New Delhi as a key strategic partner in countering Beijing, often overlooking India’s internal democratic backsliding and protectionist trade stance. The Biden administration focused on forging high-tech collaborations, attracting companies diversifying away from China, and supporting India’s rise as a manufacturing alternative to help curb China’s dominance. These initiatives aligned closely with India’s own aspirations to bolster its global influence, while simultaneously supporting U.S. efforts to uphold its leadership in the international order.

However, Trump’s return has upended America’s traditional strategic trajectory. His administration has shown a marked disregard for the liberal world order, coupled with an aggressive push for territorial advantage, punitive tariffs on trade partners, and confrontational stances toward several allies.

Amid this changing landscape, India has prioritized preserving the progress made in bilateral relations. Through carefully managed public diplomacy, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his top officials quickly engaged with Trump in Washington, staging a well-orchestrated show of goodwill. Their aim was clear: to portray India as a reliable, self-reliant partner rather than a burden—someone who could contribute meaningfully to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” vision. Modi went as far as publicly commending Trump’s efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict and offered a clever endorsement of MAGA, subtly tailored to serve India’s interests.

These shifts in U.S. policy are significant for India. Trump’s actions have revealed a diminished regard for India’s role in Washington’s China strategy. While future steps by his administration remain uncertain, Trump’s current priority is addressing U.S. trade imbalances—placing India in the crosshairs, particularly given the imposition of steep tariffs, now as high as 26 percent.

In response, Indian officials are pursuing two main strategies: negotiating a temporary trade pact aimed at easing these tariff pressures, and signaling readiness to amend India’s contentious nuclear liability legislation to facilitate the entry of American nuclear technology and exports into the Indian market…